The post-election bump has faded
Bluesky rode a wave of discontent out of X in late 2024. Millions signed up after the U.S. elections, eager for a decentralized alternative. But two years on, the numbers tell a sobering story.
According to digital intelligence firm Similarweb, Bluesky’s mobile app had 10.4 million monthly active users worldwide in June 2026. That’s down 27.2% year-over-year. Daily active users fell even harder — 25.6% year-over-year in July, landing around 3 million.
These are not just post-election jitters. The app has lost more than half its monthly active users since its late-2024 peak. Quarterly averages dropped from roughly 22.1 million in Q4 2024 to 10.7 million in Q2 2026. That’s a 52% decline.
So what happened? Some of those who fled X simply didn’t stick around. The initial surge was real, but retention has been the challenge.
Quality over quantity: the committed core
Here’s the silver lining. The people who stayed are actually engaged. Bluesky’s stickiness rate — the ratio of daily to monthly active users — held at roughly 29% in June. That’s about the same as Threads, Meta’s X competitor.
This suggests Bluesky isn’t a ghost town. It’s a smaller, more loyal community. For a platform built on principles rather than scale, that might be enough.
But is it? The company’s public stats claim nearly 46 million registered users. Yet it doesn’t share daily or monthly active figures. Similarweb’s data fills that gap — and it’s not pretty.
Pivoting beyond the app: the AT Protocol bet
New CEO Toni Schneider isn’t panicking. And here’s why: Bluesky’s future may not be the Bluesky app at all.
The company is increasingly focused on the AT Protocol — the underlying infrastructure that powers Bluesky and now a growing ecosystem of third-party apps. Projects like BlackSky and Eurosky are gaining traction. Video-focused Skylight has found early adopters. The company even launched Attie, an AI-powered research tool.
This is a strategic shift. Instead of competing head-to-head with X or Threads for every user, Bluesky is betting that the protocol becomes the backbone for a new wave of social apps. If that happens, the app’s declining numbers matter less.
Private data support is also on the roadmap. That could attract a different type of user — people more interested in closed communities than public squares.
What the data doesn’t show
One fear was that Bluesky’s losses meant a return to X. Similarweb says no. X’s mobile monthly active users were down 3% year-over-year in June. Daily active users fell 7% in July to 123.7 million.
X is still huge, though — around 302 million monthly active users on mobile as of June 2026. Web visits actually grew 5.3% year-over-year to 4.7 billion in July.
So people aren’t rushing back to X. They’re just… leaving Bluesky.
Threads is the real winner
If anyone’s benefiting from Bluesky’s slide, it’s Threads. The Meta-owned app’s daily active users jumped 21.3% year-over-year to 147 million in July 2026. Website visits soared 112% to 471.6 million.
It’s unclear whether Threads is stealing Bluesky’s disenchanted users or attracting people who never used a Twitter-like service. Either way, the momentum is unmistakable.
For Bluesky, the question is whether a protocol-first strategy can sustain the company while the flagship app shrinks. It’s a risky bet. But with a loyal core and a growing developer ecosystem, it’s not a crazy one.
The next year will tell whether Bluesky becomes the decentralized social network that powers a new generation of apps — or just a footnote in the Twitter wars.
