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NCAA Bracket Challenge: How My AI Model Performed in March Madness

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The Bracket Experiment: Trading Gut Feel for Data

Last week, I abandoned my usual March Madness rituals. No more picking teams based on mascots, uniform colors, or which squad looked good during a random Saturday game. Instead, I approached my NCAA tournament pool like an analyst evaluating an investment portfolio.

The goal was simple: separate raw probability from strategic value. I created two distinct brackets. The first aimed for maximum accuracy—the most likely path if the tournament followed predictable patterns. The second focused on expected value, designed specifically to win a 70-person pool rather than just look reasonable on paper.

Both brackets came from the same AI-driven model. Both promised more discipline than my usual haphazard approach. The question wasn’t whether this method would work perfectly. The question was whether it would work at all.

Results: Right More Often Than Wrong

The model performed better than I expected. It correctly predicted 13 of the Sweet 16 teams. In a tournament engineered to produce chaos, that’s objectively impressive.

The framework identified the true contenders. It recognized which teams had the talent and consistency to survive the opening weekend. The basic architecture held up under pressure. This wasn’t random guessing dressed up in technical language—the system genuinely understood team quality.

Yet March Madness earned its name. Three glaring misses stood out: Ohio State, Wisconsin, and defending champion Florida. Each loss followed a similar script. Ohio State fell 66-64 to TCU on a last-second layup. Wisconsin dropped an 83-82 heartbreaker to 12th-seeded High Point. Florida, a number one seed, lost 73-72 to Iowa on a late three-pointer.

These weren’t blowouts. They were single-possession games decided in the final moments. The model saw the forest clearly but missed some dangerous trees.

What the Model Missed About Tournament Volatility

Two interpretations emerged from those three losses. Either the model was fundamentally flawed, or single-elimination basketball is simply hostile to certainty. The truth, as usual, landed somewhere in between.

The model’s strength became its weakness. It leaned too heavily on the principle that better teams usually advance. Over a full season, that’s statistically sound. Over forty minutes in a neutral arena? Not so much.

Wisconsin’s loss tells the clearest story. A more sophisticated upset model wouldn’t necessarily have predicted a High Point victory. But it might have flagged Wisconsin as vulnerable—a team susceptible to an opponent getting hot from three-point range, stretching the defense, and turning the final minutes into a coin flip.

Florida’s exit delivered a similar lesson at championship level. No one expects a top seed to be “likely” to lose early. Yet there’s a crucial difference between being strong and being bulletproof. The model correctly respected Florida’s pedigree. It incorrectly treated the Gators as safe.

The Gap Between Being Right and Winning

This distinction matters enormously in bracket pools. There’s a vast difference between being broadly correct and being strategically positioned. You can have the smartest forecasting framework and still fail because you underestimated where real fragility exists.

The tournament doesn’t award style points for elegant models. It rewards those who accurately price risk—who recognize when a live underdog can create just enough chaos to topple a giant.

Building a Better Bracket for Next Year

What would I change? Not the core philosophy. Separating probability forecasting from expected-value strategy remains the right approach. Most people blend these unconsciously, picking a champion they believe in while making arbitrary upset selections for “excitement.” That’s not strategy—it’s admitting you have no process.

The improvement would come in measuring volatility. A better model would distinguish between genuinely sturdy favorites and those who merely look impressive in spreadsheets.

It would explicitly account for three-point shooting variance, turnover risk, foul trouble, reliance on a single scorer, and game-to-game performance swings. It would still respect top seeds. It would just view them with more suspicion.

The Real Lesson: Making Uncertainty Visible

The brackets are locked now. No one gets credit for saying they “would have picked Iowa” unless they actually picked Iowa. That’s the beautiful, brutal reality of March Madness. Once games begin, your brilliant framework becomes a historical artifact.

Yet the exercise remains valuable. Many pools offer second chances at the Sweet 16 or Final Four. These reset opportunities are gifts for process-oriented thinkers. They strip away the pretense of knowing everything beforehand. Now you have new information, a smaller field, and a fresh chance to separate true contenders from fortunate survivors.

The fundamental lesson transcends basketball. Disciplined forecasting isn’t about eliminating uncertainty. It’s about making uncertainty visible—understanding where your knowledge ends and randomness begins.

The model performed well. March still delivered madness. That’s not failure. That’s the entire point of the tournament. And if there’s a second-chance pool available? I’ll be entering with slightly less trust in vulnerable favorites, no matter what their seed line says.

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XDOF, three months out of stealth, is already closing in on a $1.2B Series B

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XDOF Series B

From stealth to unicorn talk in record time

Three months. That’s how long XDOF has been out in the open. And already, the robotics data startup is in late-stage conversations to raise a Series B at a valuation hovering around $1.2 billion, according to multiple sources familiar with the negotiations. The round would be led by 8VC.

Not bad for a company that didn’t even exist publicly until June.

XDOF was co-founded in 2024 by UC Berkeley researchers Philipp Wu (CEO) and Fred Shentu (CTO). Their origin story traces back to a research project called GELLO — a low-cost teleoperation system that lets a human operator control a robotic arm from a distance. The goal? Generate training data for robots. That work produced an influential paper in robotics and, eventually, a company.

The startup’s Series A, a $70 million round announced in June, drew participation from Thrive Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Lux, and Spark Capital. At the time, XDOF wasn’t planning to raise again so soon. But the market had other ideas.

Why investors are knocking on XDOF’s door

The reason for the sudden interest? Growth. Real, measurable growth.

XDOF’s annualized revenue is approaching $50 million, sources say. That kind of traction, so soon after a Series A, tends to make venture capitalists sit up and take notice. It also tends to make them pick up the phone.

“They weren’t out raising,” one person familiar with the situation told TechCrunch. “The VCs came to them.”

Terms aren’t final, and the total capital being raised remains unclear. TechCrunch couldn’t confirm whether the $1.2 billion valuation includes the new funding or sits on top of it. Both XDOF and 8VC declined to comment.

The Scale AI for physical robots

XDOF’s pitch is straightforward: it builds the data pipelines, collection tools, and annotation systems that frontier AI labs and robotics companies would rather not build themselves. Think of it as an outsourced data-supply chain for the robotics industry.

Investors describe XDOF as the Scale AI or Mercor of physical robotics — a nod to the data-labeling giants that powered the AI boom. The comparison makes sense. Large language models trained on the entire internet. Physical robots? They don’t have that luxury. There’s no massive, ready-made dataset of real-world robot interactions sitting online. That scarcity makes data collection the critical bottleneck on the road to general-purpose machines.

Wu felt that bottleneck firsthand as a PhD student. His research on how robots learn from large datasets kept hitting the same wall: “large-scale data to work with” simply didn’t exist, he told TechCrunch in June.

Building the ABC dataset

XDOF is tackling that problem head-on. The startup is partnering with UC Berkeley’s AI Research lab to release what it believes is the largest collection of high-quality robot training data ever assembled. The dataset is called ABC.

Collecting that data requires a hybrid approach. XDOF combines remote robot teleoperation with human collectors who wear sensors to record everyday tasks. Think folding clothes. Flattening boxes. The mundane, physical chores that robots still struggle to master.

The company plans to hire and train teams of data collectors around the world. Two main roles are emerging:

  • Teleoperators who steer robots remotely to demonstrate tasks
  • Egocentric operators who wear body sensors to capture natural movement data

Early traction and the competitive landscape

XDOF has already signed up 20 customers, including several frontier AI labs, according to previous statements to TechCrunch. That customer base, combined with the revenue trajectory, helps explain the valuation chatter.

But XDOF isn’t alone in this niche. Other startups chasing real-world data for robot training include Mecka AI. And the human-data platforms that started with LLMs — like Scale AI and Micro1 — are expanding beyond text and images into physical domains.

The race to build the data infrastructure for physical AI is heating up. Whoever wins it will effectively control the fuel supply for the next generation of robots. That’s a position worth paying up for.

Whether the $1.2 billion valuation holds remains to be seen. Deals at this stage can shift. But the fact that XDOF is even in this conversation — three months after emerging from stealth — says something about the demand for what it’s building.

For more on how data is shaping the future of AI, check out AI data labeling trends and robotics funding rounds in 2024.

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Artificial Intelligence

New York City Pulls AI From Younger Classrooms—Here’s Why It Matters

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NYC AI ban

New York City Just Hit Pause on AI in Classrooms

New York City Public Schools is drawing a hard line: no generative AI for students from 2-K through eighth grade during the 2026-2027 school year. That’s over half a million kids walking into classrooms next week without access to AI-powered tools.

The district says it will remove software with student-facing AI features and block AI companion chatbots. High schoolers? They’re exempt. This isn’t a blanket ban—it’s a targeted move to decide when kids should actually start using the technology.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani put it bluntly: “The tech industry wants us to believe that AI-powered early education is not only inevitable, but necessary. We do not see it that way.”

Why NYC Is Worried About AI for Younger Students

The fear isn’t just that a kid will ask ChatGPT to write an essay. City officials want younger students to build core skills—critical thinking, creativity, communication—without leaning on AI as a crutch. They’re also pushing for stronger human connections in classrooms, not another screen.

Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels said the city refuses to assume that innovation automatically equals more technology in front of students. It’s a deliberate slowdown, and it follows last year’s bell-to-bell cellphone ban that already limits device use during school hours.

What Happens When Kids Reach High School?

AI doesn’t vanish once students hit ninth grade. Instead, the district plans to roll out AI literacy classes twice a year. The goal? Teach teenagers how to think critically about the technology before they become dependent on it.

That’s a different approach from just saying no. It’s about timing—letting younger minds develop without AI, then giving older students the tools to question it.

The National Battle Over AI in Education

NYC’s decision sits at the center of a much bigger fight. The White House has pushed educators to embrace AI responsibly. Some teachers already use it to craft lesson plans, give feedback, or break down tough subjects. But not everyone’s on board.

The Department of Health and Human Services recently gathered childhood experts to talk about excessive screen time. Officials have also called for tougher safeguards around social media and AI. The message? Kids are spending too much time in front of screens, and AI might make it worse.

A Bold Experiment With Zero AI

Here’s what makes NYC’s move so interesting: instead of asking how much AI younger students should use, the largest school district in the country is starting with none. For one academic year, they’re testing whether classrooms are better off with AI kept outside the door.

That’s a radical stance, and it’s not without critics. Some educators argue AI can personalize learning or help struggling students catch up. But NYC is betting that a year without AI will reveal what kids actually need—not what tech companies think they need.

What This Means for Parents and Teachers

If you’re a parent in NYC, expect changes. AI-based apps may disappear from your child’s school day. Teachers will need to plan lessons without generative AI tools. And students in grades 2-K through 8 will rely more on traditional methods—paper, pencils, and human interaction.

For teachers elsewhere, this could be a signal. NYC is the biggest district to take this stance, and its findings could shape policies nationwide. The next year will be watched closely by educators, policymakers, and tech giants alike.

What Happens Next?

The district will spend the year studying how generative AI affects students before deciding what comes next. That research could lead to a permanent ban, a partial rollout, or something entirely different.

For now, NYC is making a statement: childhood shouldn’t be an AI beta test. Whether that’s the right call or a step backward, we’ll know more in 2027. Until then, the debate over AI in schools just got a lot more interesting.

If you’re curious about how AI is shaping other areas, check out our take on AI in education trends or classroom technology policies.

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Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 takes on GPT-5.6 and Claude — but can it really win?

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Muse Spark 1.3

Meta just fired a serious shot in the AI arms race

The company quietly unleashed Muse Spark 1.3, its most advanced AI model to date, and it’s aiming straight at the top dogs. Developers can already access and pay for the update, which Meta says represents a massive leap forward in performance.

It won’t stay confined to the developer sandbox for long. Over the coming weeks, the model will roll out across Instagram, Facebook, and the Meta AI assistant — putting it in front of billions of everyday users.

What makes Muse Spark 1.3 actually different?

Meta’s Chief AI Officer, Alexandr Wang, didn’t mince words. He called this “the biggest jump so far on model performance,” pointing to serious gains in two areas: coding and agentic tasks — the kind where the AI acts on your behalf rather than just answering questions.

But here’s the catch. Wang told Bloomberg that Muse Spark 1.3 is competitive with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and even beats OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at coding. That’s a bold claim, especially with OpenAI’s upcoming Astra model lurking in the wings.

Take those comparisons with a grain of salt, though. Benchmarks can be gamed, and a model that crushes one test might stumble on a totally different task. Real-world performance is what actually matters.

Efficiency gains under the hood

Wang broke down a few upgrades that set Muse Spark 1.3 apart:

  • 25% fewer tokens needed to complete the same job — meaning lower costs and faster responses
  • Multi-workflow handling — it can juggle several tasks at once instead of forcing separate sessions
  • Better context retention across long, complicated instructions
  • Self-awareness of limits — the model now pauses to ask for clarification before taking any irreversible action

That last point is quietly important. AI that knows when it doesn’t know is a big step toward trustworthiness, especially for agentic use cases.

Pricing stays flat, adoption explodes

Here’s something developers will appreciate: Meta isn’t raising prices. Muse Spark 1.3 costs the same as its predecessor, Muse Spark 1.2. That’s a smart move when rivals are hiking rates.

Wang told Bloomberg that adoption on Meta’s developer platform has been strong — some users are burning through trillions of tokens every week. Those numbers suggest real usage, not just hype.

What about open-source fans? Meta hasn’t decided whether it will release the model’s weights — the blueprint that lets outside developers build on top of it. The older Muse Spark 1.2 weights are still headed for release, but the new model’s future remains unclear.

The bigger picture: Meta’s spending spree continues

Meta is still pouring billions into AI infrastructure, and Muse Spark 1.3 is the clearest signal yet that the company believes it’s closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic. Whether that’s true or just corporate bravado will play out in the benchmarks and real-world deployments over the coming months.

For now, the model is available to developers, and the app rollout is imminent. If you’re building on Meta AI tools, this update is worth a serious look. And if you’re just a curious user, you’ll likely meet Muse Spark 1.3 in your Instagram feed sooner than you think.

One thing’s certain: the AI race just got a lot more interesting.

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